In the 2008 NBA Draft, the Memphis Grizzlies selected O. J. Mayo one pick ahead of Russell Westbrook, modern purveyor of the triple-double and league MVP winner. In 2008, the Miami Heat selected Michael Beasley ahead of Kevin Love, a five-time all-star and trailblazer of the stretch four phenomenon. In the same draft two future all-stars were selected in the second round — DeAndre Jordan and Goran Dragic — miles behind a lengthy list of players of whom you probably have exactly recollection. 

Thursday night’s draft in New York promises intrigue, drama, and decisions that will be rued terribly in the future because, as Bill Simmons aptly wrote in 2014, the NBA Draft is the “ultimate crapshoot.” This isn’t conjecture or opinion; it’s demonstrable fact, and it’s not particularly new or interesting. 

But what is compelling is the absurd number of mock drafts that, every year at the same time, saturate the basketball media landscape for what feels like months on end. There are mock drafts on SB Nation, on ESPN, on the Ringer, on CBS Sports, on personal blogs, on Twitter, on college sites, on pro sites, on every site you could imagine covering such a thing. 

They come in all shapes and sizes, too. Some delve deep into a particular prospect’s strengths and weaknesses, some do nothing besides shuffle names around with each new iteration, and this one is a lottery mock written entirely in haiku.

The central question is why people drool so sloppily over mock drafts when the following two crucial statements are true: 1) Mock drafts tend to be pretty non-indicative of what happens in the actual draft, and 2) The actual NBA Draft is itself as much of a crapshoot when it comes to the reality of basketball careers as the mock drafts are to the actual event. 

Here’s a hypothetical answer: mock drafts are fan fiction. Mock drafts allow fans of a particular team (your regular NBA fan) or a particular athlete (your regular college fan following a player to the pros) to imagine scenarios ad infinitum, and living in the fantasy realm is a notably human characteristic. It’s the same reason why there are, quite literally, thousands upon thousands of fanfiction stories written about Twilight, or Star Trek, or whatever other cultural literary tidal wave you can think of. (Disclaimer: this hypothetical answer is based on no evidence whatsoever, but the absence of an answer doesn’t preclude the insanity presupposed by the question!)

Here, for example, from NBADraft.met, is a mock draft from 2008. If everything they had forecast had turned true, the following players would’ve been drafted by the following teams:

Russell Westbrook to the New York Knicks.

Kevin Love to the Charlotte Bobcats.

Goran Dragic to the Blazers.

In a way, the reverse mock draft is even more fun — i.e., looking back at old mock drafts that were ridiculously off-base, and imagining those outcomes. Westbrook to the Knicks, for instance, is a hilarious thing to imagine. Love to Charlotte is mildly tragic. And Dragic to Portland is a captivating line of thought, too.

Marvin Bagley III is really good. Or he's not. | © Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

This year is no different, because with any player threatening to be selected in the lottery you can find opinions severely on both sides of the aisle. Mo Bamba, according to the Ringer, is one of those perennial “boom-or-bust” players. He’s either “the next great defensive anchor” of the league, or else he’s going to fade into oblivion. And for virtually any player you can find at least someone of modest repute on the planet who vociferously espouses a view of a player on one extreme end of a spectrum.

Luka Doncic? He’s obviously the Slovenian LeBron James — or actually he’s too slow and he’ll never make it in the NBA. Marvin Bagley III? He’s like the fusion of Kevin Durant and Sean Marion — or he’s too weak on D and only scored in college because of his athleticism. 

These takes abound; they’ll always abound; and they’re part of what makes the NBA Draft enthralling, exciting, and risky as hell. In a few years people will look back and laugh hysterically at the fact that X team took Y player in Z position. People may be laughing in 12 months. 

For all the money invested, for all the draft “experts” in the world — tons and tons of professionals pouring tons and tons of hours to this — for all the science and analytics and technology, the highest level of professional scouts seem to pretty much not know anything. Despite that fact, fans flock to mock drafts relentlessly, knowing all the while it’s a crapshoot.

The only evidence you need to be convinced of the insanity of both the NBA Draft and the conjecture surrounding the draft, it’s this: Adam Morrison was selected third overall, Kwame Brown was selected first overall, and both players were drafted under orders from Michael Jordan — who himself was drafted third overall.